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Theory of Change
Laatst bijgewerkt op: 19-03-2026
In this step you define a Theory of Change by creating an effect map. An effect map provides insight into the intended change you aim to achieve with an intervention and how this change is realised. In a schematic way, it visualises the relationships between the activities undertaken, their immediate outputs, and the expected outcomes in the short and long term.
From activities to effects: defining a Theory of Change
Start by identifying the activities that are part of the intervention. A good starting point is the changes that the intervention brings about in the new work process. Following this, describe the consequences of these activities: what direct results do they generate? Direct outcomes are generally directly attributable to the use of the intervention and are measurable.
Next, for each direct outcome, consider the expected effects in the short and longer term. Note that short- and long-term effects are usually influenced by more factors than the intervention alone. This is not a problem, as long as it is taken into account.
Why create a Theory of Change?
By creating an effect map together with the people involved:
- You obtain a clear overview of how the intervention may contribute to the problem defined earlier.
- You establish shared expectations regarding the use of the intervention.
- Together with stakeholders, you can determine which direct outcomes and effects should be prioritised in subsequent research. This provides a basis for developing a measurement plan, including the relevant outcome measurements for the study.
The direct outcomes and the short- and long-term effects guide the formulation of hypotheses and the search for existing evidence in the subsequent steps. It is possible that exploring the existing evidence leads to insights that were not anticipated earlier. In that case, the effect map should be revised to reflect these new insights.
Examples (in Dutch) can be found in the download section of the Value Palette Framework.
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